Are you a homeowner wondering exactly when the real estate market will turn around? Are you curious what the recovery will look like? And how fast home values will move up? Are you waiting for a sign of normalcy so you can also move up yourself? Or downsize? Or simply move on? Or if you put your house on the market now, you’ll wind up selling just before a big upswing? If so, you’ll want to see what the future holds one year, two years, and who knows how many more years down the road.
While no one can predict with great accuracy when the recovery will start or how much time it will take to get back to the top, there can only be a few possibilities.
By taking into account the 5 shapes of a real estate recovery, you can better plan your future. When the real estate market recovers, what shape will it take?
- Straight Line - Lackluster performance with occasional signs of life?
- U - Bottoming out into a prolonged trough?
- V - A quick rise back to the top?
- W - A double dip before powering ahead?
- Staircase or upward incline - A fairly steady rise?
The biggest price explosion happened during the Bubble Years, roughly between 2004 through 2006. As all bubbles do, this one burst. At first, it seemed like a much-needed correction. A temporary blip that would bring prices down to 2004 levels before the resumption of good times. Surely, prices couldn’t slip much lower? Well, okay, maybe just a little bit lower ... a short-lived overcorrection destined to test the bottom before zooming back up. Just the opposite occurred. The overcorrection turned into a crash.
The future is always beginning now
In March 2011 alone, Minnesota real estate in Minneapolis and St. Paul saw prices decline 16%. Though most of the decline was attributable to distressed homes — foreclosed properties and short sales. But rise of 34% in sale of those Rep properties. No one knows when the downward pressure will stop, or when it stops, how long it will take for the market to climb back.
The market could go up a little, then down a little, and up again ... with no clear direction. Don’t despair, because this could actually be a good sign.
- The market could sink into a trough and stay there for a very long time.
- The market could zoom up.
- The market could revive for a while before going into a double dip.
- The market could start improving year to year with a predictable appreciation rate — in either a straight incline or a stair-step approach.
A hopeful sign would be if the market goes up one month, then down the next, up the month after that, and on and on for several more months or possibly a year or more. The forces in play — from home seller and homebuyer to appraiser and lender — will be ‘testing the market’. At the same time, they’ll be rebuilding confidence. Once confidence is restored, then what? In 2011, another million properties are expected to be foreclosed. It’s also estimated that banks are holding onto a million previously foreclosed homes, called ‘shadow inventory’. They’re waiting to see a bounce back in order to recoup higher proceeds. Only time will tell. How long do you want to wait to sell your house? Only you can answer that question. But now that you know what the future might look like, the better armed you’ll be to make that all-important decision.
When you’re ready to start looking to buy a home in MN Mpls and St. Paul area please call us at Realty Group Inc. We are your solution for MN real estate.